Durham's Bull

Mankiw on The Candidates' Tax Plans

Greg Mankiw, Harvard economist, breaks down how to think about how the candidates' tax plans affect you.  It's a good lesson in thinking at the margin, the essence of economics. 

Compounding interest really is the 8th wonder of the world.

Links for the Week

Yet one more reason why bailouts are a bad idea - the AIG Story. 

Social network analysis, Facebook and Steroids.

Complex math and the nightmare on Wall St.

Misleading chart porn from the Times.

I'm still Bullish on Durham, and I'm not the only one.

International wealth in historical context.

Cowen on Greenspan's concession.

Growth without growth - one scary chart.

Goolsbee and Furman make Holtz-Eakin look awful.  This one is all over but the crying.

Malcolm Gladwell on "Late Bloomers" in the most recent edition of The New Yorker.

The "Brokers with Hands on Their Faces Blog."  Quality.

McArdle responds to Jacob Weisberg's proclamation of the death of Libertarianism.

A couple pieces on the history of the Virginia School of Political Economy.

Asinine Agricultural Policy

There's a nice piece in today's Times spotlighting the lunacy which we like to call agricultural policy.

Volcker on Charlie Rose

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker makes an appearance on The Charlie Rose Show.

Hubris Hits the Homeland

"In essence, households, banks and the government have already spent some of their future earnings. The current crisis marks the point at which the bills begin to get paid. Whereas Britain lumbered under the weight of imperial overreach, as the historian Niall Ferguson has written, the United States will be shackled primarily by its financial overreach."

David Leonhardt has a nice piece in today's Times on U.S. over-extension.  It's time to pay the piper.

More Links

Do good grades predict success?

Would you rather get $50 or give $100 to charity?  SunTrust wants to know.

T-minus ten days until Google's android phone is released.

DC Cupcake Wars

A new econ blog on growth with big name contributors.

NC's Libertarian candidate for Governor "carves" a pumpkin with his son

One of the more interesting possibilities over at War or Car?

Political Prediction Market Manipulation

Justin Wolfers explains how InTrade has been consistently manipulated throughout this election season. 

The Economist's Candidate

A recent Economist poll of the National Bureau of Economic Research found 80% of them thought Obama would be a better choice. 

Economists have always been left-leaning, but these numbers are pretty striking.  Only 10% self identified as Republicans. 

Perhaps four years on the sidelines is just what Republicans need to get their act together.  Like it or not, that's where they are going to be.

HT: Freakonomics

A Change is Gonna Come

"Chinese leaders are expected to allow peasants to buy or sell land-use rights for the first time, a step that could draw hundreds of millions of farmers more firmly into the market economy, now centered around the cities."

Small steps in the right direction, from today's Times.

Are We Paying Too Much?

University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan says we're overreacting. 

I do not disagree with his broader analysis.  His glazing over liquidity concerns will strike many as pollyanna-ish (myself included), but I do think he gets the big picture correct. 

No matter how pervasive irrationality may be on the downside, it is equally so on the upside.  When the cavalry comes, they will come in droves. 

There is also an important distinction between our situation now, and the one faced in the 1930's: the international liberalization of capital markets.

It is for this very reason that things aren't likely to be as bad as predicted. 

All of this assumes that we let them rescue us (see Dubai Ports World, et al).  We aren't in much of a position to protest.